What’s the purpose of a blog post?
- Is it to make a conviction?
- Is it to tell you what to do?
- Is it to provide you with new options and let you decide?
- Is it to discuss an idea with its pros and cons?
- Is it to start a discussion to get more input from the reader?
Sometimes, when I start a blog post, I don’t have a clear conviction about the topic. I want to discuss different sides of it. I want to write down the arguments for and against the opposing sides. I hope to reach a conclusion at the end of the blog post.
Sometimes, it is possible to reach a conclusion at the end of the blog post. Sometimes, it is not. If it isn’t, I ask the readers for their opinion. Sometimes, I keep the question open.
I keep looking for the answer. I set up experiments and make observations about different options to reach a conclusion. I use blogging as a tool to reach mental clarity.
I don’t see myself as an expert who knows it all. I’m here to come up with new ideas, discuss them, and try to come up with some conclusions. If I can’t succeed at that, I start a discussion with my readers and/or experiment with those ideas in my life.
I believe that’s a better way of approaching life than jumping to conclusions and acting on those conclusions.
It’s human nature to jump to conclusions. Uncertainty doesn’t feel good.
Jumping to conclusions and having strong convictions are dangerous.
We live in a chaotic reality.
Who would have known that Bitcoin would hit $20K USD when it started at less than a penny nine years ago? Who would have known Bitcoin would lose 70% of its value, dropping from $20K to $6K within two months?
At the height of the market, I was writing posts about the possibility of an 80% correction and not to be overenthusiastic about it. Not, because I had any convictions it would lose 70% of its value, but because I knew the possibility was there.
If I knew that for sure, I’d sell Bitcoins short. I didn’t do it. Doing that would be certainly dangerous.
Jumping to conclusions and having strong convictions is dangerous. Reality is more intricate than that. It can change in any moment.
Having strong convictions and going all in on them is risky. Taking into account the possibility of different outcomes and acting accordingly is the safer strategy.
Conclusion
It requires great effort to keep an open mind. Jumping to conclusions and having strong convictions is easy but dangerous.
Keeping an open mind and accepting the possibility of opposing options being true is hard. Yet, that strategy is the most suitable one to the reality that we are living in.
The goal isn’t to know it all. That’s an impossible goal. The goal is to come up with a strategy that works in either case.